Early Odds for 2012

As we’ve done in cycles past, here are the odds for the Republican nomination on the likely challengers for the Presidential ticket with 17 months to the January 2012 SC Primary. These do not reflect my desire for any particular candidate, I'm genuinely undecided on that at the moment.

TIER I: The Early Favorites (5-3 odds; 60%)

Republicans have a long history of picking last times second hat as this times winner (see Bush Sr., Dole, McCain). There are a few folks who could answer to that description this time around.

(5-1): Sarah Palin (former Gov-AK) has been building national networks and national ID (positives and negatives) and a group of primary winners since her stint as McCains VP nominee. She has as strong a pull with the NASCAR voter as anyone in the field. NAGGING QUESTION: Will voters forgive her resignation after a half term as Governor of Alaska, and can Levi Johnston please go away?

(5-1): Mitt Romney (former Gov-MA) looks the strongest of the holdovers from 2008, with a strong economic message coupled with Wall Street experience and deep pockets. The rise of Glenn Beck may help, in that it may tamp down the anti-Mormon thing. Then again, if you couldn’t beat John McCain, we may question why we should elect you now. NAGGING QUESTION: Is the author of RomneyCare the right standard bearer for a party running on the repeal of ObamaCare?

(5-1): Newt Gingrich (former Speaker-GA) has been sounding themes that could capitalize on Tea Party type momentum within the Republican rank and file. He is clearly the most intelligent (from an IQ standpoint) candidate in the field, and will be fearsome in debates. NAGGING QUESTION: What’s the expiration date on personal baggage, and will party voters look past those indiscretions as well as the failures of 1996?

TIER II: The Governors (3-1, 33%)

Presidents usually come from the Executive Branch, not the legislative. With an inexperienced Legislator-President in office, a governor burnishing solid credentials as a successful executive can make the case for challenge more readily.

(10-1): Tim Pawlenty (Gov-MN) has already started web ads on key conservative websites around the country to get the word out. NAGGING QUESTION: Does he have the charisma to get noticed in a large field and handle himself in debates with a master communicator like Barack Obama?

(10-1): Mitch Daniels (Gov-IN) is similar to Pawlenty – maybe too similar. A Governor with a solid background, low name ID, and charisma that no one would confuse with Reagan, barring a side to his personality that we simply haven’t seen yet. Still, if he can make a strong case with the experience he has, from a Midwestern state, he’s got as good a chance to catch lightning in a bottle as anyone. NAGGING QUESTION: Did his comments (which he has since backed down from in great haste) that the party needed to leave divisive social issues behind doom this Presbyterian’s chances with social conservatives?

(10-1): Haley Barbour (Gov-MS) might best be described as The One Guy in Government During Hurricane Katrina Who Knew What He Was Doing. He’s a consummate party insider as former RNC Chair, who might still be able to reach out as an outsider Southern Governor with a history of competence in office. NAGGING QUESTION: Will Northeastern (NH), Midwestern (IA), and Western (NV) states vote for a Governor from Mississippi?

(100-1): Mike Huckabee (former Gov-AR) still has major pull within the evangelical community. Unfortunately, his TV show has done little to ease the concerns of fiscal conservatives who seem to be so motivated right now. The success of the TV show, combined with what appears to be a reversal of his earlier weight loss probably precludes the run, which is why I list him here. NAGGING QUESTION: How does he distance himself from the video where he begs the Arkansas legislature for tax increases in a year where fiscal issues are king?

(100-1): Chris Christie (Gov-NJ) is having one heck of a great first year in office to be on this list already. He’s taken on union power in New Jersey, and won. That’s incredible. But it’s important for his supporters to remember that he’s only been in office for 8 months. Let’s give him time to ripen in office. NAGGING QUESTION: Is one year in executive office enough for Republican Presidential Primary voters?

(100-1) Bobby Jindal (Gov-LA) is the youngest person listed here. He’s got an extremely bright future on the national stage, has a brilliant mind and a captivating personality to match. But he’s probably too young, could use that one more term of executive experience and has the added inconvenience of having to run for reelection as Governor just 10 weeks before Iowa. As such, I think he waits four or eight more years. NAGGING QUESTION: Is the Republican Party ready to nominate a non-white for President? (Editor’s note: yes.)

TIER III: The Legislators (14-1, 7%)

The main problem for this group is that Republican Senators who run for President don’t often win, even if they get the nomination (think Dole, McCain). It’s worse for Congressmen: we haven’t elected a member of the lower House to the White House since the 1880s. That’s unlikely to change.

(33-1): Jim DeMint (Sen-SC) has been building national name ID as the leader of the Senate Conservatives. He’s clearly as ready as he’ll ever be, turning 60 just before the ’10 season begins. He’s been coy answering this question because the Tea Party movement absolutely adores him, and he’d be a natural for them. Still, his long term plans may have more to do with being the leader of the new Republican Majority rather than running for the White House in a ten candidate field. My gut is that he works that angle as well as the “king maker” angle, seeking to unify SC conservatives behind a single conservative candidate. NAGGING QUESTION: Would you rather be the leader of the Senate or a Senator running for President?

(100-1) Rick Santorum (former Sen-PA) has a lot going for him. He’s a strong conservative across the board. He’s a great communicator. He’s got “that look” and presents very well on TV. NAGGING QUESTION: Is that enough to overcome the loss of the Senate seat in 2006?

(100-1) John Thune (Sen-SD) is nationally known as “The guy who knocked off Tom Daschle,” for which we’ll all be forever grateful. Earlier this year, this was the hot pick; six months later, the energy seems to have faded. NAGGING QUESTION: Will the TARP vote haunt him as much as it did other members?

(100-1) Mike Pence (House-IN) has become known as the leader of the House conservatives for the better part of a decade. He’s a phenomenal public speaker who has made the first rounds already to solid reviews. He’s very personable on camera and in person. NAGGING QUESTION: In addition to the historic House problem, can he raise the money (probably $25M) to compete early and stay in to Super Tuesday?

(100-1) Ron Paul (House-TX) has built one of the most effective grassroots networks in the country, culminating in the “Campaign for Liberty” that has his fingerprints at the moment. In the process, he has also alienated millions of likely Republican voters with foreign policy stances and proclamations well outside the mainstream (see 9/11 quotes). In the final analysis, though, no matter how talented or well organized, time takes its toll, and Dr. Paul will be a venerable 75 when the campaign kicks off. No President has even been elected a first term older than 70. NAGGING QUESTION: If Dr. Paul decides on a third party run instead, does he doom the country to four more years of Obama?

TIER IV The Pretenders (OFF, 0%)

I keep hearing General David Petraeus mentioned as Presidential material. Yeah, he does look good in a uniform, and his recent comments about listening to Enya may qualify as soccer mom outreach, but I still don’t see him taking on the Presidency for a first foray into politics. Eisenhower was a special case as a 5-star commander of the European theater; Petraeus is not so universally loved as Ike was.

I also have heard whispered that we’ll see the return of former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Puhleeease. The guy who made New York a sanctuary city for illegal immigrants and sued the federal government to stop the line item veto has ZERO chance in this electoral climate. Personally, I think he knows that, and he’s going to stick to issues like the 9/11 families and opposing the Ground Zero mosque.

Finally, the saddest case – our own Governor Mark Sanford. 16 months ago, I was at his Coosaw Encampment with 300 other conservative state leaders. One person (who I will allow to remain unnamed) was wearing a “Sanford 2012” hat. He coulda been a contender, maybe even the favorite, with the happy marriage, the four boys, and the proven record as a fiscal conservative Governor. Within a month came “Soul-gate” and all that exploded. Yet, I’ve heard in recent days that he may try to revive his political career and run for office again. I list him here because of some connections that I know the Governor has with national level conservative donors, but I don’t personally believe this is where he will end up running. More time needs to elapse before he tries that comeback.

Liberal Hate (or Why They're Screaming Scared of Sarah Palin)

I've long noted that the "Hate is not a Family Value" bumpersticker crowd loves to hate the conservatives they accuse of being hateful. This is wedded to the liberal interest group notion that people in certain groups should "belong" to the Democrats, and if they don't the need to be punished for getting out of line. The two groups that drive liberal Democrats craziest are conservative women and conservative minorities.

For past national examples of this, I would point to the vicious left-wing attacks on Michael Steele (the infamous blackface Photoshop), Clarence Thomas, and Michele Malkin. For past SC examples look no further than Karen Floyd's face with the words "Cocaine Fueled" superimposed, or Ross Shealy's now infamous attack in The State on Karen Iacovelli's Lyme Disease (the one I responded to by referring to him as “morally reprehensible and well beyond the bounds of acceptable civil discourse” - the tagline he still proudly displays on his other blog).

Well, they're at it again over Alaska Governor (and McCain running mate) Sarah Palin. Bob McAlister has already given you his take on the media's spurious attacks, but I thought I'd hit it from another angle - the liberal hate-osphere.

After Republicans noted the lack of experience at the head of the Democrat ticket, Donna Brazile on CNN's Strategy Room compared Obama to Christ and Palin to Pilate: "Jesus was a community organizer; Pontius Pilate was a governor."

Juan Cole in Salon today compared Governor Palin to "a Muslim Fundamentalist with lipstick."


SC's own Waldo Lydecker calls Palin "James Dobson's Moose Muppet" and a "trailer-trash Christianista".

Elonkey rolls out the snark to call her "one of those perky little ex-beauty queens who will repeatedly stab you with her rhetoric while wearing a 1,000-watt smile on her face". In the same snarky vein, Deacon Tim refers to her "truthiness."

Tim at Crack the Bell just comes out and calls her a "Shrill Bitch."

Hey liberals: y'all stay classy, now...

*****

Pat Buchanon points out this morning:

Palin's daughter was fair game for a media that refused to look into reports that John Edwards, a Democratic candidate for president, was conducting an illicit affair with a woman said to be carrying his child and cheating on his faithful wife Elizabeth, who has incurable cancer. That was not a legitimate story, but Bristol Palin's pregnancy is?

Mona Charen adds:

Sarah Palin is no ordinary pro-lifer. She is an attractive, intelligent, ambitious, successful woman who has actually lived her convictions... And there stands Sarah, Trig Palin in her arms, a beautiful ambassador for the path of humility, duty, honor, and grace. It's no wonder she was in their crosshairs from the get go.

Final Thoughts from Convention Week

I thought I'd give you a wrap up of the week with my own thoughts and recollections.

Governor Sarah Palin is the Real Deal.
It was a privilege to meet her, and her husband, and her mother, and her aunts. Folks, these are real, every day, down to earth people. No putting on airs, no falsity, just real people - and frankly a breath of fresh air.

Politically, that is going to connect with most of the heartland of this country. The northeastern liberal elites, especially in the media, will never understand the Palins, and will never understand why they connect at such a deep level with ordinary Americans. Neither will the West Coast Hollywood crowd. But the vast middle of the country, stretching from the Sierras to the edges of the Beltway, will understand this family perfectly - because we and they are the same. These are normal people with normal struggles and triumphs and challenges. That is why the left and the media have gone bonkers trying to cut her to ribbons - they understand the danger Governor Palin brings without understanding her at all.

Her speech was simply brilliant - even more so because the teleprompter had died a third of the way through. When they checked the tape to the original, she had changed one only word (not counting the insertion of the now famous pit bull/hockey mom/lipstick reference). That is a sign of a great and polished speaker who kept her head remarkably well.

But her speech, while fantastic, wasn't the memory I will cherish the most from this convention. Later that night, after we rode the bus back to the hotel, but before we went to the party up the street, a number of us were in the hotel lobby/lounge area. In walks Henry Kissinger. I get to meet Henry Kissinger and shake his hand - too weird. I'm still in that lobby (after taking a few pictures) when I hear the elevator ding - and in walks Sarah and Todd Palin. They meet a few people and chat, and pose for pictures, before the Secret Service politely reminds her to keep moving, and she does - into the hotel lounge/restaurant area.

The roar that went up from the folks in the hotel lounge is a sound I will remember for the rest of my life. It sounded like a Stanley Cup winning goal had been scored, or a Super Bowl winning touchdown - in overtime. The hotel shook with the noise - and then they all started chanting "SARAH... SARAH..." I get choked up just remembering that sound. I spoke with someone Friday morning who still had chills just thinking about it - she was on the third floor and on the other end of the hotel, and she still heard it (and wondered why she wasn't downstairs in the lounge...)

One last thought on Sarah Palin - sometime Wednesday night, around 11PM EDT, the Presidential hopes of Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Sam Brownback, and anyone else whose name was on this year's ballot - their future White House hopes died that night. Anyone on this year's ballot had only this year to pull the trick - and that moment has now passed. The entrance of Sarah Palin onto the national stage heralds the end of one generation of Republican politician and the beginning of the next. This new breed is conservative socially and fiscally, but is reform minded - something the Big Government breed of Republicans just can't get. The corruption, scandal, and failure of Tom Delay, Mark Foley, Larry Craig, Duke Cunningham and the K Street cabal has led inexorably to a generation of leaders like Governors Palin, Jindal and Sanford (and probably others we don't even know yet) who will lead this party into the future. I welcome this development wholeheartedly, even as I remain concerned with some of Senator McCain's own proclivities on border security and global warming...

Other highlights of this week: Wednesday night's speech lineup was rock star - and they all hit it out of the park. Huckabee, Romney, Giuliani - all did fantastic jobs at warming things up. That more people watched Wednesday night than watched Obama's speech augurs well for the Republicans this fall.

Lowlights of the week - protestor idiots, especially the ones that MSNBC allowed to get access into the arena on Thursday night. Shame on MSNBC for knowingly giving protestors badges so they could make trouble - someone needs to get fired for that, just as someone needs to get prosecuted for stealing the identity of an Indiana delegate to gain unlawful access.

People I got to meet (and really enjoyed): The Palins, Mayor Giuliani, Jon Voight, Mary Katherine Ham, Henry Kissinger, and the guy who played George Washington.

SC people (some delegates) I had the pleasure of hanging out with this week: Lou and Patrick Nolan, Doug and LouEllen Robertson, Gen. Richard and Linnea Eckstrom, Kevin Hall, Jim Corbett, Reps. Alan Clemmons, Tracy Edge, Eric Bedingfield, and Wendy Nanney (along with her husband Tim), Glenn McCall, Moye Graham (who is a prince), Eaddy Roe Willard, Katrina Shealy, and Drew McKissick. Special Thanks also to the folks who did videos this week: Lt. Gov Bauer, Atty Gen. McMaster, Speaker Harrell, Congressmen Wilson and Inglis, Rep. Bedingfield, and Kevin Hall. I do wish Governor Sanford could've stayed longer (we had to cancel the scheduled video due to Hanna's arrival) and that Rep. Gresham Barrett could've come up (something happened there and that video didn't happen either).

It was a pleasure and a privilege to go to this convention with such a fine delegation - even more so under the leadership of our Chairman, Katon Dawson, who did remarkable work this week. Jay W., Katie, Lisa, and Rob also were terrific, and did a ton of work keeping things running. Well done all.

So now it's back to work. I'm back in Lexington, dodging the hurricane on the drive down from Charlotte airport last night. After this many nights of too little sleep, I think it's nap time...

Convention Arrival

I pulled in around 9:00 PM local time last night, weary from too much flying (I still don’t know if it was Northwest or Priceline that bumped my two-hour direct flight from Charlotte to MSP into two separate two hour flights, with Memphis in the middle… I suspect the airline… and I digress.)

The trip up was eventful. The drive up I-77 to Charlotte included some guy in a minivan who rode my bumper for an hour (even when I changed lanes…). You know that section where 77 goes from two to three to four lanes? I stayed in the “fast” lane, which became the “2” lane. The minivan goes flying around me, but fails to notice the real reason I was driving 70 – the unmarked officer car in front of me, who promptly nails the minivan for whatever speed he was doing when he blew by Sparky. Sometimes, karma’s a beaut.

My first flight was with an LAPD officer who just got back from Iraq this week. Definitely an eye-opener on what’s going on there. It’s clear we’ve won what we went to do – so it’s fast approaching time to declare victory, turn it over to the Iraqis and bring the boys home. Victory with honor is a great way to wrap it all up…

My second flight was also interesting. I was next to two older gals from Mississippi. One was from the north part of the state and was headed to a Montana retreat with her family for two weeks. The place sounds idyllic – a ranch with a stream in the mountains… The other gal was from Pass Christiane, and was fleeing Gustav in advance. When she had returned to her home after Katrina, EVERYTHING had been gone, including the foundation, and two of her best friends. This time, she and her husband didn’t pack the blueprints for the house – if this hurricane takes the newly rebuilt home, they’ll go somewhere else.

These two gals are part of a very important sector of the Republican coalition – married women (who, the polling tells us, are twice as likely to vote Republican as are single women.) Suffice it to say they both had similar feelings as I have had in this election season. None of us were all that thrilled with the concept of a McCain candidacy, but we’re all absolutely stoked over a McCain/Palin candidacy. Two days on, among the folks who are the backbone of the Party, the Palin choice is an absolute home run – exactly what was needed to reach out to the Republican base and energize it. McCain is his own best outreach to the middle (though Palin’s reach to independent women and the “hockey moms” of the battleground states of the northern Midwest {MN, MI, WI, IA, OH, and PA} will be critical).

After so much flying (and a long wait for the luggage at MSP) it was a relief to get to the hotel and immediately be among so many friends. I’ve already run into at least a dozen SC folks, including Chairman Dawson this morning. It’s kinda weird to travel all day, and then see friendly faces you know when you get here. I’ve also run into a fellow traveler from the Fred Thompson campaign as well as Bud McFarlane, the former Reagan National Security Advisor who is now a delegate from DC.

Dawn broke this morning to a brilliant blue sky day here – a cool breeze blowing through the sun-splashed city. I walked the two blocks down to Key’s Café, which came highly recommended by security here. (Travelers hint – if you want to know where to go to get a real breakfast, ask security. They know. Trust me.) The “Everything” omelette was as good as promised, including the homemade strawberry jam on the 12-grain wheat toast. The ambiance was somewhat disturbed when we were joined by the members of a lesbian protestor choir who saw our badges and simply glared…

OH yes, I nearly forgot – the “protestors”. A handful of “peaceful protestors” were arrested yesterday by local law enforcement (God Bless Them All), and charged with conspiracy to start a riot. Among the items confiscated were knives, machetes, slingshots, bows, arrows, lighter fluid, and (my personal favorite) “buckets of urine.” I’m guessing they wanted to mark their territory before they shot the flaming arrows of Gladiator doom in our direction. Good on the local sheriff for shutting it down.

St. Paul city Councilman Dave Thune gets the prize for clueless local Democrat politician quote of the day: (amalgamated from MSNBC and the STrib)

"This is not the way to start things off," Thune said Saturday morning. "This is sending the wrong message. Regardless of how you feel about these people...they had a right to be there… We spent so much time trying to welcome people to the city and now this is the way we start out," he said. "It pretty much sucks."

Gee, Councilman Thune, “We invited folks to be here” is an awfully strange excuse for why those folks should be met with weaponry upon arrival…or did you mean you’ve been inviting anarchist rioters to your district, while the rest of the city is trying welcome Republicans here for a convention? (So… yes, I am wearing my convention security badge for the next week…)

Actually, the local folks working the convention have been spectacularly welcoming. Special shout-out to Annie and Lorri from the MSP2008 crew who have been invaluable in dispensing tourism advice and maps... even last night's cab driver was into the convention spirit, as an immigrant who came here legally to start a new business and enjoy the American dream as “his own boss.”

Bad Republican rumor of the day – if and when Gustav hits we may shut down the convention. That would be a mistake. This is an opportunity for Senator McCain and Governor Palin to be serious about serious issues at the convention – even if by satellite live from the Gulf Coast. We delegates can be responsible and dial down the “party” aspect of a convention like this – but we shouldn’t pass up the opportunity to energize the base (here and around the country). The Palin nomination has us all in high-energy mode right now, and this convention could be a terrific way to channel that energy into community service projects (locally and in the Gulf) that could go a long way towards building our reputation along those lines. All that said, our prayers go out to the folks along the Gulf Coast right now in the path of the storm. They’re very much in our thoughts.

I’m one of at least three of us blogging from the SC delegation – along with my convention roomie Drew McKissick (Conservative Outpost), and Rep. Alan Clemmons, who is writing for the Sun News. I’m looking forward to what the next week holds.

OK, Moye Graham just rolled up - time for the Party to start...

BREAKING: McCain/Palin

Terrific news out of Dayton, Ohio this morning – Fox News is confirming that Senator McCain has chosen Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate!

Governor Palin:

• Has more Executive experience than either of the Democrats on their team (and more than McCain for that matter);
• is staunchly pro-life, with a compelling life story to tell, and impeccable pro-Second Amendment credentials, cementing the Republican base;
• is the perfect foil against “Beltway” Biden;
• is the younger looking person we needed to offset McCain’s age;
• is a self-proclaimed “hockey mom” (of 5 kids) who will play well in the battleground states of the upper Midwest;
• is the perfect response to Obama’s inability or unwillingness to choose Hillary Clinton – and the perfect way to reach out to women swing voters;
• has a great reputation as a reformer – someone who has cleaned up corruption and stands up against the lobbyist corruption; and
• has a tremendous grasp of the energy issue as it relates to oil and gasoline (the one Obama stupidly pooh-poohed last night during his speech).

My Grade: A. She’s a slight touch soft on the global warming issue for me, but other than that, she’s an absolutely dynamite pick.

This is the pick I had hoped for, and it cements my vote for McCain/Palin in the fall. I had been holding out to commit, waiting for this pick to make my own decision, and hoping he would pick a pro-lifer. After his stellar performance at Saddleback, and with this great pick, now I can proudly say – Vote McCain/Palin!

Next week is going to be a lot of fun – and I’ll be there, laptop in hand, to post a few blogs along the way. I’ll have a cam with me, so hopefully we can get some good video as well!