As we’ve done in cycles past, here are the odds for the Republican nomination on the likely challengers for the Presidential ticket with 17 months to the January 2012 SC Primary. These do not reflect my desire for any particular candidate, I'm genuinely undecided on that at the moment.
TIER I: The Early Favorites (5-3 odds; 60%)
Republicans have a long history of picking last times second hat as this times winner (see Bush Sr., Dole, McCain). There are a few folks who could answer to that description this time around.
(5-1): Sarah Palin (former Gov-AK) has been building national networks and national ID (positives and negatives) and a group of primary winners since her stint as McCains VP nominee. She has as strong a pull with the NASCAR voter as anyone in the field. NAGGING QUESTION: Will voters forgive her resignation after a half term as Governor of Alaska, and can Levi Johnston please go away?
(5-1): Mitt Romney (former Gov-MA) looks the strongest of the holdovers from 2008, with a strong economic message coupled with Wall Street experience and deep pockets. The rise of Glenn Beck may help, in that it may tamp down the anti-Mormon thing. Then again, if you couldn’t beat John McCain, we may question why we should elect you now. NAGGING QUESTION: Is the author of RomneyCare the right standard bearer for a party running on the repeal of ObamaCare?
(5-1): Newt Gingrich (former Speaker-GA) has been sounding themes that could capitalize on Tea Party type momentum within the Republican rank and file. He is clearly the most intelligent (from an IQ standpoint) candidate in the field, and will be fearsome in debates. NAGGING QUESTION: What’s the expiration date on personal baggage, and will party voters look past those indiscretions as well as the failures of 1996?
TIER II: The Governors (3-1, 33%)
Presidents usually come from the Executive Branch, not the legislative. With an inexperienced Legislator-President in office, a governor burnishing solid credentials as a successful executive can make the case for challenge more readily.
(10-1): Tim Pawlenty (Gov-MN) has already started web ads on key conservative websites around the country to get the word out. NAGGING QUESTION: Does he have the charisma to get noticed in a large field and handle himself in debates with a master communicator like Barack Obama?
(10-1): Mitch Daniels (Gov-IN) is similar to Pawlenty – maybe too similar. A Governor with a solid background, low name ID, and charisma that no one would confuse with Reagan, barring a side to his personality that we simply haven’t seen yet. Still, if he can make a strong case with the experience he has, from a Midwestern state, he’s got as good a chance to catch lightning in a bottle as anyone. NAGGING QUESTION: Did his comments (which he has since backed down from in great haste) that the party needed to leave divisive social issues behind doom this Presbyterian’s chances with social conservatives?
(10-1): Haley Barbour (Gov-MS) might best be described as The One Guy in Government During Hurricane Katrina Who Knew What He Was Doing. He’s a consummate party insider as former RNC Chair, who might still be able to reach out as an outsider Southern Governor with a history of competence in office. NAGGING QUESTION: Will Northeastern (NH), Midwestern (IA), and Western (NV) states vote for a Governor from Mississippi?
(100-1): Mike Huckabee (former Gov-AR) still has major pull within the evangelical community. Unfortunately, his TV show has done little to ease the concerns of fiscal conservatives who seem to be so motivated right now. The success of the TV show, combined with what appears to be a reversal of his earlier weight loss probably precludes the run, which is why I list him here. NAGGING QUESTION: How does he distance himself from the video where he begs the Arkansas legislature for tax increases in a year where fiscal issues are king?
(100-1): Chris Christie (Gov-NJ) is having one heck of a great first year in office to be on this list already. He’s taken on union power in New Jersey, and won. That’s incredible. But it’s important for his supporters to remember that he’s only been in office for 8 months. Let’s give him time to ripen in office. NAGGING QUESTION: Is one year in executive office enough for Republican Presidential Primary voters?
(100-1) Bobby Jindal (Gov-LA) is the youngest person listed here. He’s got an extremely bright future on the national stage, has a brilliant mind and a captivating personality to match. But he’s probably too young, could use that one more term of executive experience and has the added inconvenience of having to run for reelection as Governor just 10 weeks before Iowa. As such, I think he waits four or eight more years. NAGGING QUESTION: Is the Republican Party ready to nominate a non-white for President? (Editor’s note: yes.)
TIER III: The Legislators (14-1, 7%)
The main problem for this group is that Republican Senators who run for President don’t often win, even if they get the nomination (think Dole, McCain). It’s worse for Congressmen: we haven’t elected a member of the lower House to the White House since the 1880s. That’s unlikely to change.
(33-1): Jim DeMint (Sen-SC) has been building national name ID as the leader of the Senate Conservatives. He’s clearly as ready as he’ll ever be, turning 60 just before the ’10 season begins. He’s been coy answering this question because the Tea Party movement absolutely adores him, and he’d be a natural for them. Still, his long term plans may have more to do with being the leader of the new Republican Majority rather than running for the White House in a ten candidate field. My gut is that he works that angle as well as the “king maker” angle, seeking to unify SC conservatives behind a single conservative candidate. NAGGING QUESTION: Would you rather be the leader of the Senate or a Senator running for President?
(100-1) Rick Santorum (former Sen-PA) has a lot going for him. He’s a strong conservative across the board. He’s a great communicator. He’s got “that look” and presents very well on TV. NAGGING QUESTION: Is that enough to overcome the loss of the Senate seat in 2006?
(100-1) John Thune (Sen-SD) is nationally known as “The guy who knocked off Tom Daschle,” for which we’ll all be forever grateful. Earlier this year, this was the hot pick; six months later, the energy seems to have faded. NAGGING QUESTION: Will the TARP vote haunt him as much as it did other members?
(100-1) Mike Pence (House-IN) has become known as the leader of the House conservatives for the better part of a decade. He’s a phenomenal public speaker who has made the first rounds already to solid reviews. He’s very personable on camera and in person. NAGGING QUESTION: In addition to the historic House problem, can he raise the money (probably $25M) to compete early and stay in to Super Tuesday?
(100-1) Ron Paul (House-TX) has built one of the most effective grassroots networks in the country, culminating in the “Campaign for Liberty” that has his fingerprints at the moment. In the process, he has also alienated millions of likely Republican voters with foreign policy stances and proclamations well outside the mainstream (see 9/11 quotes). In the final analysis, though, no matter how talented or well organized, time takes its toll, and Dr. Paul will be a venerable 75 when the campaign kicks off. No President has even been elected a first term older than 70. NAGGING QUESTION: If Dr. Paul decides on a third party run instead, does he doom the country to four more years of Obama?
TIER IV The Pretenders (OFF, 0%)
I keep hearing General David Petraeus mentioned as Presidential material. Yeah, he does look good in a uniform, and his recent comments about listening to Enya may qualify as soccer mom outreach, but I still don’t see him taking on the Presidency for a first foray into politics. Eisenhower was a special case as a 5-star commander of the European theater; Petraeus is not so universally loved as Ike was.
I also have heard whispered that we’ll see the return of former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Puhleeease. The guy who made New York a sanctuary city for illegal immigrants and sued the federal government to stop the line item veto has ZERO chance in this electoral climate. Personally, I think he knows that, and he’s going to stick to issues like the 9/11 families and opposing the Ground Zero mosque.
Finally, the saddest case – our own Governor Mark Sanford. 16 months ago, I was at his Coosaw Encampment with 300 other conservative state leaders. One person (who I will allow to remain unnamed) was wearing a “Sanford 2012” hat. He coulda been a contender, maybe even the favorite, with the happy marriage, the four boys, and the proven record as a fiscal conservative Governor. Within a month came “Soul-gate” and all that exploded. Yet, I’ve heard in recent days that he may try to revive his political career and run for office again. I list him here because of some connections that I know the Governor has with national level conservative donors, but I don’t personally believe this is where he will end up running. More time needs to elapse before he tries that comeback.
Showing posts with label Ron Paul. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ron Paul. Show all posts
30 August 2010
05 March 2008
Handicapping McCain's Veep Field
So, now that Johnny Mac is the Republican nominee (and with the Dems locked in a battle that will take them all the way to Labor Day and their slugfest convention), let’s take a quick look at the odds and bios for the likely (and some unlikely) possibilities for Republican VP nominee.
THE FAVORITE
MN Governor Tim Pawlenty
ODDS: 4:1
POSITIVES: Executive experience, acceptable to all facets of the conservative base (fiscal, social, security, immigration), battleground state, youth, attractive, long time McCain supporter
NEGATIVE: Relatively low national profile, and his last name is worth 16 Scrabble points all by itself.
COMMENTARY:Pawlenty has it all, and the profile is rising rapidly as more conservatives get to know him. If he doesn’t get the nod, he’s a top tier Presidential option in 2012. Known for strong stands on social issues, and for balancing his state’s budget out of a deficit without raising taxes. Recently praised McCain while criticizing the amnesty bill from last year. Has reportedly been groomed for the job.
THE (EX-) GOVERNORS ON THE SHORT LIST
ODDS: 7:1
Former PA Governor and Original Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge
POSITIVES: Executive experience at state and national levels, honored military service, battleground state, known as tough on crime, strong on school choice and gay marriage.
NEGATIVES: can be too easily associated with George Bush presidency, pro-choice, mixed record prosecuting illegal immigration
SC Governor Mark Sanford
POSITIVES: Executive experience, rock star with the fiscal conservatives, prolific fundraiser with national ties, Wall Street loves him, acceptable to social conservatives, young, attractive family, 2000 McCain supporter, Eagle Scout. Recently praised McCain while criticizing amnesty (see Pawlenty above). If the rumored “hit list” turns out to be true, and Sanford actually engages in a meaningful way, then the primary wins he might accrue would hit in June, maximizing his political capital just as McCain would be cutting down the list.
NEGATIVES: Failed to back McCain in 2008, preferring to be seen as the fair-minded host of the SC primary. Made Time Magazine’s “three worst Governors” article in 2005. SC is already a red state. Needs to overhaul his speaking/communication style before he’s ready for primetime. Has strayed from conservative orthodoxy on global warming at exactly the wrong time. Might have a few skeletons kicking around Will Folks’ blog-closets, as well as a potential ports “scandal” brewing at just the wrong time. If Sanford fails to fully engage the rumored primary “hit list”, then the primary losses his political allies might accrue would hit in June, minimizing his remaining political capital just as McCain would be cutting down the list. McCain might worry that Brad Warthen would pull The State’s primary endorsement retroactively.
LA Governor Bobby Jindal
POSITIVES: Brilliant young mind, tremendous communicator, rock star with every section of the conservative movement, handsome, confirmed reformer, minority conservative, Rhodes Scholar, described by Rush Limbaugh as “the next Ronald Reagan”, assisted in the delivery of his third child. The perfect substantive antidote to Barack Obamessiah’s slick rhetorical emptiness (and Bobby could school Barry O. on the Sermon on the Mount).
NEGATIVE: He’s only 36, and he just started his first term as LA Governor (after a short but solid US House career). Might be too early. (seriously – that’s his one and only negative)
COMMENTARY: Sanford’s reputation with the national conservative movement is enough to overcome most of the negatives, but might not be enough to compete with Pawlenty’s grooming to be VP or Jindal’s star power. Still, if he doesn't get the nod, Sanford may well be considered a top tier 2012 candidate if he chooses to run.
Would be Ridge’s last ride, but his pro-choice Catholic position won’t soothe any social conservatives, though bringing battleground PA’s electoral votes would be a terrific inoculation against losing Ohio.
Oh, and mark it down, barring something truly unfortunate, Bobby Jindal will be President within the next 20 years, whether he’s the VP choice this time around or not. You heard it here. (and, I'd vote for him in a heartbeat.)
SECOND TIER GOVERNORS
MA Governor Mitt Romney
ODDS: 10:1
POSITIVES: Presidential contender, potential frontrunner for the 2012 nomination, high name ID, business credentials, great family, handsome looks, well connected, inimitable fundraiser, took solid conservative positions in the ’08 race and stuck by them. Holds 250 convention delegates. Strong in northeastern and Midwestern battleground states.
NEGATIVES: McCain and Romney get along like cats and dogs, the recent endorsement love fest notwithstanding. McCain can’t be sure if Romney will stick to the newfound conservatism (since it was the incessant flip-floppery that cost him the nomination). National conservatives bringing Mitt’s name up now would actually prefer Sanford. Has Mitt mentioned he’s a Mormon?
MS Governor Haley Barbour
ODDS: 12:1
POSITIVES: Was the only executive (Republican or Democrat, state level or national) to exhibit any level of competence during the Katrina disaster. Solid national fundraiser with solid social conservative credentials. History as a reformer in Mississippi.
NEGATIVES: Too close with the Bushes after his stint as RNC chair. Broke promise not to raise taxes as governor, while vetoing tax cuts. Has reportedly been linked to the CCC.
AR Governor Mike Huckabee
ODDS: 50:1
POSITIVES: Just created a run for the Presidency on nothing but terrific communications skills and a reputation as a former Baptist minister. Rose to the Top Tier while only raising $9M. Social Conservative credentials mostly excellent. Made a graceful exit from the race with magnanimous words towards McCain. Holds 250 convention delegates after winning Iowa, Georgia and a few other states.
NEGATIVES: Just burned all of his political capital by staying in the race a month too long. Serious questions about ethics dating back to his governorship, most recently when he took a weekend in the Caymans to make a paid speech while campaigning for President. Total non-starter with the fiscal conservatives, severely suspect on immigration issue. Arkansas is only a battleground state because of Huckabee’s performance as Governor – he’d get clocked if Hillary’s the nominee. Does not have “the look” of a national officeholder. Some social conservative remember him as being on the wrong side of the Southern Baptist Convention split fight a few years back. Only raised $9M for his Presidential race.
Former FL Governor Jeb Bush
ODDS: 100:1
POSITIVES: The Best Bush. Better communicator than his father or brother. More competent than George. More conservative than George. More well liked than George. Almost single handedly governed Florida from being a battleground to being a red state.
NEGATIVE: His last name is Bush, and that isn’t going to get you elected for another century or so. Truly a pity, as on talent and skills, he deserves the White House more than his brother or father ever could have.
Current FL Governor Charlie Crist
ODDS: 100:1
POSITIVES: His endorsement helped swing the critical primary state of Florida for McCain at the time he needed it most. NRA rating of A+, solid on school choice issue, expanded adoption tax credits, illegal immigration, managed tort and eminent domain reforms.
NEGATIVES: Right to Die stance won’t play with pro-lifers. He’s been divorced since 1980 and has developed (fairly or unfairly) a reputation as a “player”. Some left wing blogs have even claimed he’s a closet homosexual, a charge he denied vociferously during his election campaign. Only a first term governor.
Former WI Governor Tommy Thompson
ODDS: 1,000,000:1
POSITIVES: Solid reputation as a conservative Governor and Cabinet Secretary.
NEGATIVES: Has all of the charisma of a potted plant. With no flowers. Ever. Is inexplicably younger than McCain.
Former VA Governor and RNC Chairman Jim Gilmore
ODDS: 1,000,000:1
POSITIVES: Solid reputation as a tax cutter (ran for governor on three words: No Car Tax). Also has excellent history as education reformer in VA.
NEGATIVES: Probably not VP timber. Almost made Tommy Thompson look interesting in the debates. Probably running for Senate from VA instead.
THE FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES
Former TN Senator Fred Thompson
ODDS: 15:1
POSITIVES: Solid communicator who built a decent national organization despite starting his run too late. Conservative credentials led to an extremely loyal following, despite lack of fundraising prowess. Friends with McCain, going back to their Senate days and his support of McCain in 2000. “Law and Order” reruns keep him on constant cable.
NEGATIVES: Best finish was his 2nd place in the WY caucus. Not a prodigious fundraiser. The “lazy” tag (unfairly, IMHO). His apparent age makes him unlikely pairing for McCain. May run for TN Governor in 2010 instead.
CA Congressman Duncan Hunter
ODDS: 50:1
POSITIVES: Solid, 26-year legislative history, including as Armed Service Chair. Supported McCain in 2000. Would bolster McCain’s immigration creds immeasurably. Vietnam Vet. Excellent Social Conservative credentials. Terrific debate presence, quick on his feet. NRA loves him. Youthful appearance. And you can’t deny the manly sound of that last name.
NEGATIVES: Was unable to build a national network. Fundraising was dismal, though not unexpected for 3rd Tier candidate. Wall Street types have complaints on China trade issue. May be better suited as Secretary of Defense or Homeland Security.
KS Senator Sam Brownback
ODDS: 1000:1
POSITIVES: Solid conservative on life and social conservative issues. Friends with McCain from the Senate.
NEGATIVES: Voted for amnesty before he voted against it. Barely defeats Tommy Thompson in the charisma category. Has actually flip-flopped on his own denominational affiliation twice in the last 5 years.
CO Congressman Tom Tancredo
ODDS: 1,000,000:1
POSITIVES: Unimpeachable immigration credentials. Solid conservative fiscal record across the spectrum.
NEGATIVES: Once called Miami a “Third World City”. Once suggested nuking Mecca. Immigration stance also against legal immigration, which would seem to eliminate him from any contention with McCain. Which is probably unfortunate. Would also make excellent Homeland Security or Education Secretary.
TX Congressman Ron Paul
ODDS: 100,000,000:1
POSITIVES: Makes McCain look younger. Brings out McCain’s sense of humor and his sharp wit. Undeniable fiscal credentials.
NEGATIVES: Too numerous to mention. If you’ve seen this, you know. And don’t get me started on his followers…
WILD CARDS
COMBINED FIELD ODDS: 50:1
Former OK Congressman JC Watts
POSITIVES: Solid Conservative credentials. Terrific communicator. Unafraid – including when he coined the term “race-hustling poverty pimps” to describe Dem politicians. Would be an interesting choice to reach out to African-Americans if Hillary manages to steal the Dem nomination from Obama.
NEGATIVES: Has mostly disappeared from the national political scene since his retirement in 2002. House service might not be enough experience.
Former MD LT Gov Michael Steele
POSITIVES: Solid conservative credentials, great communicator. Was the national conservative “Flavor of the month” for October 2006, until he narrowly lost his challenge for the Senate seat from MD. Current GOPAC Chairman. Excellent Obama antidote or African-American outreach if Hillary.
NEGATIVES: Lack of Experience – is Lite Gov of a small state enough to rise to VP? Hard to say. Has a very bright future, and is said to also be contemplating a 2010 Senate run if the regrettable Barbara Mikulski finally retires.
Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice
POSITIVES: Extremely knowledgeable on foreign affairs, gifted communicator.
NEGATIVES: WAAAAAAY too close to George Bush for McCain to consider seriously. After 8 years in Cabinet level roles, might be time for a long vacation before she tries to re-enter public life. Played down any electoral ambition speculation on Russert’s Meet the Press. Pro-choice.
Former OK Congressman Steve Largent
POSITIVES: Solid conservative credentials (hear a theme playing in many of these?), solid communicator, well-loved football star in battleground state of WA.
NEGATIVES: Narrowly (and surprisingly) lost OK Gov race in 2002, and has been mostly out of sight since.
Former GA Congressman and Speaker Newt Gingrich
POSITIVES: Brilliant strategist, excellent problem solver, impeccable conservative credentials. Terrific Television presence.
NEGATIVES: Polarizing figure. Might have trouble playing the #2 slot… to anyone, much less McCain. Publicly critical of McCain during campaign. Strayed from conservative orthodoxy on global warming. Personal life is a disaster area.
SC Senator Lindsey Graham
POSITIVES: Loves himself some John McCain. Was out early and often supporting McCain and lining up others to support in SC. May be singularly most responsible for nomination outside of McCain himself. Compelling personal story, including military service.
NEGATIVES: Is the ideological successor to McCain, which is to say he helps McCain in precisely no ways. Grahmnesty, the Gang of 14, Gitmo - every weakness McCain has, picking Lindsey makes worse. If he's going to pick a South Carolinian, it's far likelier to be Sanford. Is single, and has had to fight off whispered rumors about his dating life, not unlike Charlie Crist. Has drawn multiple primary challengers, and is up for election this cycle. May still be frontrunner for Attorney General nod if McCain prevails in November.
THE FAVORITE
MN Governor Tim Pawlenty
ODDS: 4:1
POSITIVES: Executive experience, acceptable to all facets of the conservative base (fiscal, social, security, immigration), battleground state, youth, attractive, long time McCain supporter
NEGATIVE: Relatively low national profile, and his last name is worth 16 Scrabble points all by itself.
COMMENTARY:Pawlenty has it all, and the profile is rising rapidly as more conservatives get to know him. If he doesn’t get the nod, he’s a top tier Presidential option in 2012. Known for strong stands on social issues, and for balancing his state’s budget out of a deficit without raising taxes. Recently praised McCain while criticizing the amnesty bill from last year. Has reportedly been groomed for the job.
THE (EX-) GOVERNORS ON THE SHORT LIST
ODDS: 7:1
Former PA Governor and Original Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge
POSITIVES: Executive experience at state and national levels, honored military service, battleground state, known as tough on crime, strong on school choice and gay marriage.
NEGATIVES: can be too easily associated with George Bush presidency, pro-choice, mixed record prosecuting illegal immigration
SC Governor Mark Sanford
POSITIVES: Executive experience, rock star with the fiscal conservatives, prolific fundraiser with national ties, Wall Street loves him, acceptable to social conservatives, young, attractive family, 2000 McCain supporter, Eagle Scout. Recently praised McCain while criticizing amnesty (see Pawlenty above). If the rumored “hit list” turns out to be true, and Sanford actually engages in a meaningful way, then the primary wins he might accrue would hit in June, maximizing his political capital just as McCain would be cutting down the list.
NEGATIVES: Failed to back McCain in 2008, preferring to be seen as the fair-minded host of the SC primary. Made Time Magazine’s “three worst Governors” article in 2005. SC is already a red state. Needs to overhaul his speaking/communication style before he’s ready for primetime. Has strayed from conservative orthodoxy on global warming at exactly the wrong time. Might have a few skeletons kicking around Will Folks’ blog-closets, as well as a potential ports “scandal” brewing at just the wrong time. If Sanford fails to fully engage the rumored primary “hit list”, then the primary losses his political allies might accrue would hit in June, minimizing his remaining political capital just as McCain would be cutting down the list. McCain might worry that Brad Warthen would pull The State’s primary endorsement retroactively.
LA Governor Bobby Jindal
POSITIVES: Brilliant young mind, tremendous communicator, rock star with every section of the conservative movement, handsome, confirmed reformer, minority conservative, Rhodes Scholar, described by Rush Limbaugh as “the next Ronald Reagan”, assisted in the delivery of his third child. The perfect substantive antidote to Barack Obamessiah’s slick rhetorical emptiness (and Bobby could school Barry O. on the Sermon on the Mount).
NEGATIVE: He’s only 36, and he just started his first term as LA Governor (after a short but solid US House career). Might be too early. (seriously – that’s his one and only negative)
COMMENTARY: Sanford’s reputation with the national conservative movement is enough to overcome most of the negatives, but might not be enough to compete with Pawlenty’s grooming to be VP or Jindal’s star power. Still, if he doesn't get the nod, Sanford may well be considered a top tier 2012 candidate if he chooses to run.
Would be Ridge’s last ride, but his pro-choice Catholic position won’t soothe any social conservatives, though bringing battleground PA’s electoral votes would be a terrific inoculation against losing Ohio.
Oh, and mark it down, barring something truly unfortunate, Bobby Jindal will be President within the next 20 years, whether he’s the VP choice this time around or not. You heard it here. (and, I'd vote for him in a heartbeat.)
SECOND TIER GOVERNORS
MA Governor Mitt Romney
ODDS: 10:1
POSITIVES: Presidential contender, potential frontrunner for the 2012 nomination, high name ID, business credentials, great family, handsome looks, well connected, inimitable fundraiser, took solid conservative positions in the ’08 race and stuck by them. Holds 250 convention delegates. Strong in northeastern and Midwestern battleground states.
NEGATIVES: McCain and Romney get along like cats and dogs, the recent endorsement love fest notwithstanding. McCain can’t be sure if Romney will stick to the newfound conservatism (since it was the incessant flip-floppery that cost him the nomination). National conservatives bringing Mitt’s name up now would actually prefer Sanford. Has Mitt mentioned he’s a Mormon?
MS Governor Haley Barbour
ODDS: 12:1
POSITIVES: Was the only executive (Republican or Democrat, state level or national) to exhibit any level of competence during the Katrina disaster. Solid national fundraiser with solid social conservative credentials. History as a reformer in Mississippi.
NEGATIVES: Too close with the Bushes after his stint as RNC chair. Broke promise not to raise taxes as governor, while vetoing tax cuts. Has reportedly been linked to the CCC.
AR Governor Mike Huckabee
ODDS: 50:1
POSITIVES: Just created a run for the Presidency on nothing but terrific communications skills and a reputation as a former Baptist minister. Rose to the Top Tier while only raising $9M. Social Conservative credentials mostly excellent. Made a graceful exit from the race with magnanimous words towards McCain. Holds 250 convention delegates after winning Iowa, Georgia and a few other states.
NEGATIVES: Just burned all of his political capital by staying in the race a month too long. Serious questions about ethics dating back to his governorship, most recently when he took a weekend in the Caymans to make a paid speech while campaigning for President. Total non-starter with the fiscal conservatives, severely suspect on immigration issue. Arkansas is only a battleground state because of Huckabee’s performance as Governor – he’d get clocked if Hillary’s the nominee. Does not have “the look” of a national officeholder. Some social conservative remember him as being on the wrong side of the Southern Baptist Convention split fight a few years back. Only raised $9M for his Presidential race.
Former FL Governor Jeb Bush
ODDS: 100:1
POSITIVES: The Best Bush. Better communicator than his father or brother. More competent than George. More conservative than George. More well liked than George. Almost single handedly governed Florida from being a battleground to being a red state.
NEGATIVE: His last name is Bush, and that isn’t going to get you elected for another century or so. Truly a pity, as on talent and skills, he deserves the White House more than his brother or father ever could have.
Current FL Governor Charlie Crist
ODDS: 100:1
POSITIVES: His endorsement helped swing the critical primary state of Florida for McCain at the time he needed it most. NRA rating of A+, solid on school choice issue, expanded adoption tax credits, illegal immigration, managed tort and eminent domain reforms.
NEGATIVES: Right to Die stance won’t play with pro-lifers. He’s been divorced since 1980 and has developed (fairly or unfairly) a reputation as a “player”. Some left wing blogs have even claimed he’s a closet homosexual, a charge he denied vociferously during his election campaign. Only a first term governor.
Former WI Governor Tommy Thompson
ODDS: 1,000,000:1
POSITIVES: Solid reputation as a conservative Governor and Cabinet Secretary.
NEGATIVES: Has all of the charisma of a potted plant. With no flowers. Ever. Is inexplicably younger than McCain.
Former VA Governor and RNC Chairman Jim Gilmore
ODDS: 1,000,000:1
POSITIVES: Solid reputation as a tax cutter (ran for governor on three words: No Car Tax). Also has excellent history as education reformer in VA.
NEGATIVES: Probably not VP timber. Almost made Tommy Thompson look interesting in the debates. Probably running for Senate from VA instead.
THE FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES
Former TN Senator Fred Thompson
ODDS: 15:1
POSITIVES: Solid communicator who built a decent national organization despite starting his run too late. Conservative credentials led to an extremely loyal following, despite lack of fundraising prowess. Friends with McCain, going back to their Senate days and his support of McCain in 2000. “Law and Order” reruns keep him on constant cable.
NEGATIVES: Best finish was his 2nd place in the WY caucus. Not a prodigious fundraiser. The “lazy” tag (unfairly, IMHO). His apparent age makes him unlikely pairing for McCain. May run for TN Governor in 2010 instead.
CA Congressman Duncan Hunter
ODDS: 50:1
POSITIVES: Solid, 26-year legislative history, including as Armed Service Chair. Supported McCain in 2000. Would bolster McCain’s immigration creds immeasurably. Vietnam Vet. Excellent Social Conservative credentials. Terrific debate presence, quick on his feet. NRA loves him. Youthful appearance. And you can’t deny the manly sound of that last name.
NEGATIVES: Was unable to build a national network. Fundraising was dismal, though not unexpected for 3rd Tier candidate. Wall Street types have complaints on China trade issue. May be better suited as Secretary of Defense or Homeland Security.
KS Senator Sam Brownback
ODDS: 1000:1
POSITIVES: Solid conservative on life and social conservative issues. Friends with McCain from the Senate.
NEGATIVES: Voted for amnesty before he voted against it. Barely defeats Tommy Thompson in the charisma category. Has actually flip-flopped on his own denominational affiliation twice in the last 5 years.
CO Congressman Tom Tancredo
ODDS: 1,000,000:1
POSITIVES: Unimpeachable immigration credentials. Solid conservative fiscal record across the spectrum.
NEGATIVES: Once called Miami a “Third World City”. Once suggested nuking Mecca. Immigration stance also against legal immigration, which would seem to eliminate him from any contention with McCain. Which is probably unfortunate. Would also make excellent Homeland Security or Education Secretary.
TX Congressman Ron Paul
ODDS: 100,000,000:1
POSITIVES: Makes McCain look younger. Brings out McCain’s sense of humor and his sharp wit. Undeniable fiscal credentials.
NEGATIVES: Too numerous to mention. If you’ve seen this, you know. And don’t get me started on his followers…
WILD CARDS
COMBINED FIELD ODDS: 50:1
Former OK Congressman JC Watts
POSITIVES: Solid Conservative credentials. Terrific communicator. Unafraid – including when he coined the term “race-hustling poverty pimps” to describe Dem politicians. Would be an interesting choice to reach out to African-Americans if Hillary manages to steal the Dem nomination from Obama.
NEGATIVES: Has mostly disappeared from the national political scene since his retirement in 2002. House service might not be enough experience.
Former MD LT Gov Michael Steele
POSITIVES: Solid conservative credentials, great communicator. Was the national conservative “Flavor of the month” for October 2006, until he narrowly lost his challenge for the Senate seat from MD. Current GOPAC Chairman. Excellent Obama antidote or African-American outreach if Hillary.
NEGATIVES: Lack of Experience – is Lite Gov of a small state enough to rise to VP? Hard to say. Has a very bright future, and is said to also be contemplating a 2010 Senate run if the regrettable Barbara Mikulski finally retires.
Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice
POSITIVES: Extremely knowledgeable on foreign affairs, gifted communicator.
NEGATIVES: WAAAAAAY too close to George Bush for McCain to consider seriously. After 8 years in Cabinet level roles, might be time for a long vacation before she tries to re-enter public life. Played down any electoral ambition speculation on Russert’s Meet the Press. Pro-choice.
Former OK Congressman Steve Largent
POSITIVES: Solid conservative credentials (hear a theme playing in many of these?), solid communicator, well-loved football star in battleground state of WA.
NEGATIVES: Narrowly (and surprisingly) lost OK Gov race in 2002, and has been mostly out of sight since.
Former GA Congressman and Speaker Newt Gingrich
POSITIVES: Brilliant strategist, excellent problem solver, impeccable conservative credentials. Terrific Television presence.
NEGATIVES: Polarizing figure. Might have trouble playing the #2 slot… to anyone, much less McCain. Publicly critical of McCain during campaign. Strayed from conservative orthodoxy on global warming. Personal life is a disaster area.
SC Senator Lindsey Graham
POSITIVES: Loves himself some John McCain. Was out early and often supporting McCain and lining up others to support in SC. May be singularly most responsible for nomination outside of McCain himself. Compelling personal story, including military service.
NEGATIVES: Is the ideological successor to McCain, which is to say he helps McCain in precisely no ways. Grahmnesty, the Gang of 14, Gitmo - every weakness McCain has, picking Lindsey makes worse. If he's going to pick a South Carolinian, it's far likelier to be Sanford. Is single, and has had to fight off whispered rumors about his dating life, not unlike Charlie Crist. Has drawn multiple primary challengers, and is up for election this cycle. May still be frontrunner for Attorney General nod if McCain prevails in November.
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