Revoke Sochi

It appears that someone has found a push point in the Russian/Georgian conflict. Someone has a new website up petitioning the International Olympic Committee to revoke awarding the 2014 Winter Olympics to Sochi, Russia. Representatives Allyson Schwartz and Bill Shuster of PA have sponsored a bipartisan resolution asking the IOC to find a new venue for the 2014 Games.

This is the first real pressure point I've seen (not too many people calling for Russia to be removed from the G-8 yet, though that would be a strong step as well) that has a chance to succeed. When you consider the national pride and success that Beijing has seen as a result of their Olympic experience (certainly not without downside, but overall a very positive impact for China so far...), removing the chance for the Russians to have a similar experience when they thought they would have such a moment would be a strong deterrent from a domestic political standpoint.

Until that kind of serious and strong isolative pressure is brought, we will continue to see video of Russian "peacekeepers" rolling tanks over police cars while "withdrawing" during a "ceasefire". The Bad Old Days are back.

Lessons from South Ossetia

Ceasefire or not, the Georgian/Russian conflict has already taught us some important (and unfortunate) things.

Vladimir Putin is the New Tyrant on the Block.

Call him Tsar Putin I or Vlad the Invader (or NTOTB), but Putin is now certainly the biggest baddest dude on the foreign policy block. This is yet another blow to Russia's democratic reformers, including former chess champion Garry Kasparov, who might have held out hopes that a change in Russia's Presidency would allow for an opportunity for reform. Instead, it is now blatantly clear that Putin is Prime Minister in name and President in function. (Russian "President" Dmitry Medvedev was on a boat cruise down the Volga while the invasion occurred; Putin was at the Olympic Opening Ceremonies, with all the other heads of state.)

The historical role of Russia as an authoritarian state with expansionist tendencies is back, and more dangerous than ever.

Historians will surely point to South Ossetia as the Sudetenland of the early 21st Century, with Putin now using the same "reunification" and "protection" as cover for blatant and open aggression, just as Hitler did in 1938. Combine that with Tsar Putin's assertion that the Soviet demise was the "greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th Century", and you have a recipe for disaster - a Russian nationalist dictator with Hitler's tendencies (including a top notch internal propaganda machine) and a lust for Stalin's brutality. Oh - and nukes. Let's not forget those.

The Cold War just reheated up, and America's prestige and international reputation is at stake, as is the promise of continued post-Soviet Eastern European democracy.

Only now, a new set of strategies will need to be employed. The old Cold War doctrine of containment may not be possible in the same ways as it was used in the last century. Georgia was applying for NATO membership, and was the third largest contributor of troops to the Iraq coalition. Yet it only had 30,000 troops at its disposal - absolutely no match for the Russians. If the Russians remain obstinate, and if, as now appears probable, Ukraine is next in line for Russian aggression, multiple democracies could get gobbled up into the new Russian empire without the West doing anything substantive to stop it. Would the US act militarily to protect one of Russia's neighbors? Doubtful - direct military conflict with the Russians is far too likely to go nuclear. Knowing this, Putin is free to act with impugnity, knowing that the old rules of Mutual Assured Destruction prevent us from stopping him. This is a tremendous challenge for NATO in a post-Soviet Cold War, now that most of Eastern Europe has gone the pro-US democracy route.

So, the leaders of the World (especially those of the free world) are going to have to figure out how best to punish Putin in a way that makes him think twice about future murderous land grabs. Ironically, any steps taken to destabilize Russia's economy would play directly into Putin's domestic political needs, making isolation very difficult. Also - we may be at a point where we need Russian oil more than Russia needs whatever the West is selling.

This will be the single greatest challenge the next President faces. Combine that with an ongoing civizational conflict with fundamentalist Islam, and the foreign policy outlook becomes rather grim. We are in for a long rough century, (or at least the next couple of decades) and it is going to take bold leadership and monumental strength of will for America to succeed.

As a postscript, I hold out zero hope that Barack Obama has either that will or that leadership.

Random thoughts on this that and the other...

Now that the Olympics are well under way (and consuming my television viewing habits for the nexxt two weeks - I'm a total Olympic junkie...), I thought I'd post a few thoughts...

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Do you remember the long-held "Olympic Truce"? The idea was that nations competing in the Olympic Games would stop fighting long enough to enjoy the sporting events, and maybe even sit down long enough to work out their differences. (Hey, we were dealing with civilised nations at the time - Islamist countries need not apply...)

Well, it seems someone needed to remind President Vladimir Putin of that one. Putin's aggression against the former Soviet state of Georgia was possibly the most ill-timed invasion of all time - the tanks rolled over the border just as the Opening ceremonies were getting underway. Definitely the PR blunder of the year - Moscow rolls tanks as Beijing highlights new Century with best artistic opening ceremonies ever.

Oh - and kudos to President Bush for pulling Putin aside at those ceremonies to voice his displeasure. Bush has had one of the better weeks of his Presidency with these ceremonies - a deft diplomatic touch previously unseen, massaging the Chinese while speaking out against them openly. Definitely one of the highlights of his Presidency, when it's all said and done.

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On the domestic front, what's this we hear about John McCain considering Joe Lieberman for his Veep nominee? How many Republicans with older vehicles would be scrambling to scrape "Sore Loserman" bumper stickers off from the Florida debacle?

Seriously - this is the single biggest mistake McCain could make right now. He has ALL of the momentum at present - Obama has botched his own Veep pick by failing to make it before the Olympics dominated the news cycle (whomever Obama picks cannot compete with Michael Phelps). McCain is his own best asset and ally to reach out to the middle, but his VP choice needs to shore up the base. If he sticks with the Palin/Pawlenty/Jindal/Sanford/Romney/Huckabee list, he's safe (and I'm still rooting for Palin...). But if he picks someone not provably pro-life, or worse, provably pro-choice (Lieberman or Ridge), he alienates the base entirely.

Hopefully, he'll do the smart thing and allow his VP choice to tack right while he remains in the middle.

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Did anyone else stay up last night to watch that Olympic swimming relay (pic above)? Absolutely fabulous stuff. Favorite moments (other than when Lezak touched out the French at the wall, or the sheet brute force of the celebration pictured above): when in the interview segment, one of the swimmers referred to their loudmouthed, trash talking competitors as "those Frenchies." Awesome.

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Anyone who has watched the last two golf majors (the PGA and the Open Championship) will be hard pressed to believe in global warming. That hoax must surely be winding down now...

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Lastly, RIP to Shaft and Bernie Mac, both of whom passed away over the weekend. Two entertainers who will surely be missed...